Italy details

Italy

Statistics:
  • Games: 128
  • Expected results: 87 (67.97%)
  • Unexpected results: 41 (32.03%)
  • Unknown games: 0
  • Record: 71 Won, 29 Lost, 28 Drawn, 0 Unknown
  • Last five games: WWWWW
  • Expected wins: 66 (51.56%)
  • Expected losses: 21 (16.41%)
  • Unexpected wins: 5 (3.91%)
  • Unexpected losses: 8 (6.25%)
  • Unexpected draws: 28 (21.88%)
  • Wins (+1pt for expected, +3 for unexpected): 81
  • Losses (-1pt for expected, -3 for unexpected): -45
  • Draws (-1pt if fav, +1pt if underdog): 28
  • Total: 64

Tournament Game Time Round Group Name Score Odds Analysis Location Coach
Euro 2020 11-Jul-2021 21:00 2 Final Italy
Prob to win: 70.82%
Game ELO: 2013 -> 2300 ( + 287)
1 - 1 (aet)
3 - 2 (pen)
England
Prob to win: 29.18%
Game ELO: 1982 -> 2146 ( + 164)
Italy win: expected
Wembley Stadium, London
Euro 2020 06-Jul-2021 21:00 2 Semi Finals Italy
Prob to win: 79.65%
Game ELO: 2013 -> 2261 ( + 248)
1 - 1 (aet)
4 - 2 (pen)
Spain
Prob to win: 20.35%
Game ELO: 2033 -> 2063 ( + 30)
Italy win: expected
Wembley Stadium, London
Euro 2020 02-Jul-2021 18:00 2 Quarter Finals Belgium
Prob to win: 26.98%
Game ELO: 2100 -> 2127 ( + 27)
1 - 2
Italy
Prob to win: 73.02%
Game ELO: 2013 -> 2203 ( + 190)
Italy win: expected
Allianz Arena, Munich
Euro 2020 26-Jun-2021 21:00 2 Top 16 Italy
Prob to win: 94.70%
Game ELO: 2013 -> 2148 ( + 135)
2 - 1 (aet)
Austria
Prob to win: 5.30%
Game ELO: 1747 -> 1799 ( + 52)
Italy win: expected
Wembley Stadium, London
Euro 2020 20-Jun-2021 18:00 1 Group A Italy
Prob to win: 96.30%
Game ELO: 2112 -> 2135 ( + 23)
1 - 0
Wales
Prob to win: 3.70%
Game ELO: 1898 -> 1875 ( -23)
Italy win: expected
Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Euro 2020 16-Jun-2021 21:00 1 Group A Italy
Prob to win: 90.86%
Game ELO: 2059 -> 2112 ( + 53)
3 - 0
Switzerland
Prob to win: 9.14%
Game ELO: 1882 -> 1829 ( -53)
Italy win: expected
Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Euro 2020 11-Jun-2021 21:00 1 Group A Turkey
Prob to win: 2.32%
Game ELO: 1801 -> 1755 ( -46)
0 - 3
Italy
Prob to win: 97.68%
Game ELO: 2013 -> 2059 ( + 46)
Italy win: expected
Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Euro 2016 02-Jul-2016 21:00 2 Quarter Finals Germany
Prob to win: 61.86%
Game ELO: 2087 -> 2124 ( + 37)
1 - 1 (aet)
6 - 5 (pen)
Italy
Prob to win: 38.14%
Game ELO: 1991 -> 1954 ( -37)
Italy loss: expected
Nouveau Stade de Bordeaux, Bordeaux
Euro 2016 27-Jun-2016 18:00 2 Top 16 Italy
Prob to win: 59.66%
Game ELO: 1899 -> 1991 ( + 92)
2 - 0
Spain
Prob to win: 40.34%
Game ELO: 1978 -> 1886 ( -92)
Italy win: expected
Stade de France, Saint-Denis
Euro 2016 22-Jun-2016 21:00 1 Group E Italy
Prob to win: 77.01%
Game ELO: 1984 -> 1899 ( -85)
0 - 1
Republic of Ireland
Prob to win: 22.99%
Game ELO: 1681 -> 1766 ( + 85)
Italy loss: upset (win expected)
Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve-d'Ascq
Euro 2016 17-Jun-2016 15:00 1 Group E Italy
Prob to win: 80.11%
Game ELO: 1960 -> 1984 ( + 24)
1 - 0
Sweden
Prob to win: 19.89%
Game ELO: 1763 -> 1739 ( -24)
Italy win: expected
Stadium Municipal, Toulouse
Euro 2016 13-Jun-2016 21:00 1 Group E Belgium
Prob to win: 47.12%
Game ELO: 1923 -> 1838 ( -85)
0 - 2
Italy
Prob to win: 52.88%
Game ELO: 1875 -> 1960 ( + 85)
Italy win: expected
Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Décines-Charpieu
Brazil 2014 24-Jun-2014 1 Group D Italy
Prob to win: 43.70%
Game ELO: 1878 -> 1826 ( -52)
0 - 1
Uruguay
Prob to win: 56.30%
Game ELO: 1864 -> 1916 ( + 52)
Italy loss: expected
Natal
Brazil 2014 20-Jun-2014 1 Group D Italy
Prob to win: 36.26%
Game ELO: 1944 -> 1878 ( -66)
0 - 1
Costa Rica
Prob to win: 63.74%
Game ELO: 1826 -> 1892 ( + 66)
Italy loss: expected
Recife
Brazil 2014 14-Jun-2014 1 Group D England
Prob to win: 50.14%
Game ELO: 1932 -> 1876 ( -56)
1 - 2
Italy
Prob to win: 49.86%
Game ELO: 1888 -> 1944 ( + 56)
Italy win: upset (loss expected)
Manaus
Euro 2012 01-Jul-2012 21:45 2 Final Spain
Prob to win: 88.29%
Game ELO: 0 -> 1399 ( + 1399)
4 - 0
Italy
Prob to win: 11.71%
Game ELO: 0 -> 1048 ( + 1048)
Italy loss: expected
Olympic Stadium, Kyiv
Euro 2012 28-Jun-2012 20:45 2 Semi Finals Germany
Prob to win: 59.66%
Game ELO: 0 -> 1116 ( + 1116)
1 - 2
Italy
Prob to win: 40.34%
Game ELO: 0 -> 1183 ( + 1183)
Italy win: upset (loss expected)
National Stadium, Warsaw
Euro 2012 24-Jun-2012 21:45 2 Quarter Finals England
Prob to win: 42.99%
Game ELO: 0 -> 999 ( + 999)
0 - 0 (aet)
2 - 4 (pen)
Italy
Prob to win: 57.01%
Game ELO: 0 -> 1126 ( + 1126)
Italy win: expected
Olympic Stadium, Kyiv
Euro 2012 18-Jun-2012 20:45 1 Group C Italy
Prob to win: 84.38%
Game ELO: 1011 -> 1043 ( + 32)
2 - 0
Republic of Ireland
Prob to win: 15.62%
Game ELO: 787 -> 755 ( -32)
Italy win: expected
Stadion Miejski, Poznan
Euro 2012 14-Jun-2012 18:00 1 Group C Italy
Prob to win: 53.45%
Game ELO: 1000 -> 1011 ( + 11)
1 - 1
Croatia
Prob to win: 46.55%
Game ELO: 1075 -> 1064 ( -11)
Italy draw: upset (win expected)
Stadion Miejski, Poznan
Euro 2012 10-Jun-2012 18:00 1 Group C Spain
Prob to win: 88.29%
Game ELO: 0 -> 1000 ( + 1000)
1 - 1
Italy
Prob to win: 11.71%
Game ELO: 0 -> 1000 ( + 1000)
Italy draw: upset (loss expected)
PGE Arena, Gdansk
South Africa 2010 24-Jun-2010 16:00 1 Group F Slovakia
Prob to win: 34.16%
Game ELO: 1605 -> 1688 ( + 83)
3 - 2
Italy
Prob to win: 65.84%
Game ELO: 1876 -> 1793 ( -83)
Italy loss: upset (win expected)
Johannesburg - JEP Marcello Lippi
South Africa 2010 20-Jun-2010 16:00 1 Group F Italy
Prob to win: 73.14%
Game ELO: 1915 -> 1876 ( -39)
1 - 1
New Zealand
Prob to win: 26.86%
Game ELO: 1550 -> 1589 ( + 39)
Italy draw: upset (win expected)
Nelspruit Marcello Lippi
South Africa 2010 14-Jun-2010 20:30 1 Group F Italy
Prob to win: 40.48%
Game ELO: 1938 -> 1915 ( -23)
1 - 1
Paraguay
Prob to win: 59.52%
Game ELO: 1765 -> 1788 ( + 23)
Italy draw: upset (loss expected)
Cape Town Marcello Lippi
Euro 2008 22-Jun-2008 20:45 2 Quarter Finals Spain
Prob to win: 89.38%
Game ELO: 0 -> 1204 ( + 1204)
0 - 0 (aet)
4 - 2 (pen)
Italy
Prob to win: 10.62%
Game ELO: 0 -> 951 ( + 951)
Italy loss: expected
Ernst-Happel-Stadion, Vienna
Euro 2008 17-Jun-2008 20:45 1 Group C France
Prob to win: 35.86%
Game ELO: 928 -> 850 ( -78)
0 - 2
Italy
Prob to win: 64.14%
Game ELO: 914 -> 992 ( + 78)
Italy win: expected
Letzigrund, Zürich
Euro 2008 13-Jun-2008 18:00 1 Group C Italy
Prob to win: 50.43%
Game ELO: 900 -> 914 ( + 14)
1 - 1
Romania
Prob to win: 49.57%
Game ELO: 1000 -> 986 ( -14)
Italy draw: upset (win expected)
Letzigrund, Zürich
Euro 2008 09-Jun-2008 20:45 1 Group C Netherlands
Prob to win: 70.46%
Game ELO: 0 -> 1100 ( + 1100)
3 - 0
Italy
Prob to win: 29.54%
Game ELO: 0 -> 900 ( + 900)
Italy loss: expected
Stade de Suisse, Bern
Germany 2006 09-Jul-2006 2 Final Italy
Prob to win: 73.14%
Game ELO: 2185 -> 2263 ( + 78)
1 - 1 (aet)
5 - 3 (pen)
France
Prob to win: 26.86%
Game ELO: 2155 -> 2089 ( -66)
Italy win: expected
Berlin Marcello Lippi
Germany 2006 04-Jul-2006 2 Semi Finals Germany
Prob to win: 33.39%
Game ELO: 2175 -> 2068 ( -107)
0 - 2 (aet)
Italy
Prob to win: 66.61%
Game ELO: 2114 -> 2197 ( + 83)
Italy win: expected
Dortmund Marcello Lippi
Germany 2006 30-Jun-2006 2 Quarter Finals Italy
Prob to win: 89.81%
Game ELO: 2032 -> 2114 ( + 82)
3 - 0
Ukraine
Prob to win: 10.19%
Game ELO: 1967 -> 1885 ( -82)
Italy win: expected
Berlin Marcello Lippi
Germany 2006 26-Jun-2006 2 Top 16 Italy
Prob to win: 93.35%
Game ELO: 2005 -> 2032 ( + 27)
1 - 0
Australia
Prob to win: 6.65%
Game ELO: 1831 -> 1804 ( -27)
Italy win: expected
Kaiserslautern Marcello Lippi
Germany 2006 22-Jun-2006 1 Group E Czech Republic
Prob to win: 7.64%
Game ELO: 1896 -> 1830 ( -66)
0 - 2
Italy
Prob to win: 92.36%
Game ELO: 1939 -> 2005 ( + 66)
Italy win: expected
Marcello Lippi
Germany 2006 17-Jun-2006 1 Group E Italy
Prob to win: 95.28%
Game ELO: 1964 -> 1939 ( -25)
1 - 1
USA
Prob to win: 4.72%
Game ELO: 1775 -> 1800 ( + 25)
Italy draw: upset (win expected)
Marcello Lippi
Germany 2006 12-Jun-2006 1 Group E Italy
Prob to win: 94.50%
Game ELO: 1944 -> 1964 ( + 20)
2 - 0
Ghana
Prob to win: 5.50%
Game ELO: 1618 -> 1598 ( -20)
Italy win: expected
Marcello Lippi
Euro 2004 22-Jun-2004 19:45 1 Group C Italy
Prob to win: 83.21%
Game ELO: 1023 -> 1043 ( + 20)
2 - 1
Bulgaria
Prob to win: 16.79%
Game ELO: 825 -> 765 ( -60)
Italy win: expected
Estádio D. Afonso Henriques, Guimarães
Euro 2004 18-Jun-2004 19:45 1 Group C Italy
Prob to win: 45.41%
Game ELO: 1000 -> 1023 ( + 23)
1 - 1
Sweden
Prob to win: 54.59%
Game ELO: 1175 -> 1152 ( -23)
Italy draw: upset (loss expected)
Estádio do Dragão, Porto
Euro 2004 14-Jun-2004 17:00 1 Group C Denmark
Prob to win: 40.61%
Game ELO: 0 -> 1000 ( + 1000)
0 - 0
Italy
Prob to win: 59.39%
Game ELO: 0 -> 1000 ( + 1000)
Italy draw: upset (win expected)
Estádio D. Afonso Henriques, Guimarães
Korea/ Japan 2002 18-Jun-2002 2 Top 16 South Korea
Prob to win: 56.16%
Game ELO: 1890 -> 1949 ( + 59)
2 - 1 (aet)
Italy
Prob to win: 43.84%
Game ELO: 1951 -> 1892 ( -59)
Italy loss: expected
Daejeon Giovanni Trapattoni
Korea/ Japan 2002 13-Jun-2002 1 Group G Mexico
Prob to win: 38.41%
Game ELO: 1914 -> 1920 ( + 6)
1 - 1
Italy
Prob to win: 61.59%
Game ELO: 1957 -> 1951 ( -6)
Italy draw: upset (win expected)
Oita Stadium, Oita Giovanni Trapattoni
Korea/ Japan 2002 08-Jun-2002 1 Group G Italy
Prob to win: 59.94%
Game ELO: 2034 -> 1957 ( -77)
1 - 2
Croatia
Prob to win: 40.06%
Game ELO: 1824 -> 1901 ( + 77)
Italy loss: upset (win expected)
Kashima Stadium, Ibaraki Giovanni Trapattoni
Korea/ Japan 2002 03-Jun-2002 1 Group G Italy
Prob to win: 68.75%
Game ELO: 2009 -> 2034 ( + 25)
2 - 0
Ecuador
Prob to win: 31.25%
Game ELO: 1727 -> 1702 ( -25)
Italy win: expected
Sapporo Dome, Sapporo Giovanni Trapattoni
Euro 2000 02-Jul-2000 20:00 2 Final France
Prob to win: 53.88%
Game ELO: 0 -> 1250 ( + 1250)
2 - 1 (aet)
Italy
Prob to win: 46.12%
Game ELO: 0 -> 1223 ( + 1223)
Italy loss: expected
De Kuip, Rotterdam
Euro 2000 29-Jun-2000 18:00 2 Semi Finals Italy
Prob to win: 57.15%
Game ELO: 0 -> 1287 ( + 1287)
0 - 0 (aet)
3 - 1 (pen)
Netherlands
Prob to win: 42.85%
Game ELO: 0 -> 1173 ( + 1173)
Italy win: expected
Amsterdam Arena, Amsterdam
Euro 2000 24-Jun-2000 20:45 2 Quarter Finals Italy
Prob to win: 81.36%
Game ELO: 0 -> 1199 ( + 1199)
2 - 0
Romania
Prob to win: 18.64%
Game ELO: 0 -> 967 ( + 967)
Italy win: expected
King Baudouin Stadium, Brussels
Euro 2000 19-Jun-2000 20:45 1 Group B Italy
Prob to win: 84.90%
Game ELO: 1125 -> 1152 ( + 27)
2 - 1
Sweden
Prob to win: 15.10%
Game ELO: 950 -> 923 ( -27)
Italy win: expected
Philips Stadion, Eindhoven
Euro 2000 14-Jun-2000 20:45 1 Group B Italy
Prob to win: 86.85%
Game ELO: 1050 -> 1125 ( + 75)
2 - 0
Belgium
Prob to win: 13.15%
Game ELO: 1050 -> 975 ( -75)
Italy win: expected
King Baudouin Stadium, Brussels
Euro 2000 11-Jun-2000 14:30 1 Group B Turkey
Prob to win: 19.80%
Game ELO: 0 -> 950 ( + 950)
1 - 2
Italy
Prob to win: 80.20%
Game ELO: 0 -> 1050 ( + 1050)
Italy win: expected
GelreDome, Arnhem
France 1998 03-Jul-1998 2 Quarter Finals Italy
Prob to win: 15.47%
Game ELO: 2060 -> 2024 ( -36)
0 - 0 (aet)
3 - 4 (pen)
France
Prob to win: 84.53%
Game ELO: 2161 -> 2197 ( + 36)
Italy loss: expected
Saint-Denis Cesare Maldini
France 1998 29-Jun-1998 2 Top 16 Italy
Prob to win: 66.74%
Game ELO: 2021 -> 2060 ( + 39)
1 - 0
Norway
Prob to win: 33.26%
Game ELO: 1942 -> 1903 ( -39)
Italy win: expected
Toulouse Cesare Maldini
France 1998 23-Jun-1998 1 Group B Italy
Prob to win: 87.31%
Game ELO: 2006 -> 2021 ( + 15)
2 - 1
Austria
Prob to win: 12.69%
Game ELO: 1704 -> 1689 ( -15)
Italy win: expected
Stade de France, Saint-Denis Cesare Maldini
France 1998 17-Jun-1998 1 Group B Italy
Prob to win: 90.91%
Game ELO: 1984 -> 2006 ( + 22)
3 - 0
Cameroon
Prob to win: 9.09%
Game ELO: 1623 -> 1601 ( -22)
Italy win: expected
Stade de la Mosson, Montpellier Cesare Maldini
France 1998 11-Jun-1998 1 Group B Italy
Prob to win: 85.48%
Game ELO: 2016 -> 1984 ( -32)
2 - 2
Chile
Prob to win: 14.52%
Game ELO: 1756 -> 1788 ( + 32)
Italy draw: upset (win expected)
Parc Lescure, Bordeaux Cesare Maldini
Euro 1996 19-Jun-1996 19:30 1 Group C Italy
Prob to win: 19.53%
Game ELO: 983 -> 1004 ( + 21)
0 - 0
Germany
Prob to win: 80.47%
Game ELO: 1140 -> 1119 ( -21)
Italy draw: upset (loss expected)
Old Trafford, Manchester
Euro 1996 14-Jun-1996 19:30 1 Group C Czech Republic
Prob to win: 60.77%
Game ELO: 925 -> 992 ( + 67)
2 - 1
Italy
Prob to win: 39.23%
Game ELO: 1050 -> 983 ( -67)
Italy loss: expected
Anfield, Liverpool
Euro 1996 11-Jun-1996 16:30 1 Group C Italy
Prob to win: 64.54%
Game ELO: 0 -> 1050 ( + 1050)
2 - 1
Russia
Prob to win: 35.46%
Game ELO: 0 -> 950 ( + 950)
Italy win: expected
Anfield, Liverpool
USA 1994 17-Jul-1994 2 Final Brazil
Prob to win: 67.63%
Game ELO: 2130 -> 2175 ( + 45)
0 - 0 (aet)
3 - 2 (pen)
Italy
Prob to win: 32.37%
Game ELO: 2092 -> 2047 ( -45)
Italy loss: expected
Pasadena Arrigo Sacchi
USA 1994 13-Jul-1994 2 Semi Finals Bulgaria
Prob to win: 21.11%
Game ELO: 2050 -> 1999 ( -51)
1 - 2
Italy
Prob to win: 78.89%
Game ELO: 2041 -> 2092 ( + 51)
Italy win: expected
East Rutherford Arrigo Sacchi
USA 1994 09-Jul-1994 2 Quarter Finals Italy
Prob to win: 63.61%
Game ELO: 1989 -> 2041 ( + 52)
2 - 1
Spain
Prob to win: 36.39%
Game ELO: 2002 -> 1950 ( -52)
Italy win: expected
Foxborough Arrigo Sacchi
USA 1994 05-Jul-1994 2 Top 16 Nigeria
Prob to win: 19.62%
Game ELO: 1836 -> 1802 ( -34)
1 - 2 (aet)
Italy
Prob to win: 80.38%
Game ELO: 1955 -> 1989 ( + 34)
Italy win: expected
Foxborough Arrigo Sacchi
USA 1994 28-Jun-1994 1 Group E Italy
Prob to win: 78.79%
Game ELO: 1968 -> 1955 ( -13)
1 - 1
Mexico
Prob to win: 21.21%
Game ELO: 1872 -> 1885 ( + 13)
Italy draw: upset (win expected)
RFK Stadium, Washington Arrigo Sacchi
USA 1994 23-Jun-1994 1 Group E Italy
Prob to win: 74.80%
Game ELO: 1921 -> 1968 ( + 47)
1 - 0
Norway
Prob to win: 25.20%
Game ELO: 1902 -> 1855 ( -47)
Italy win: expected
Giants Stadium, East Rutherford Arrigo Sacchi
USA 1994 18-Jun-1994 1 Group E Italy
Prob to win: 79.27%
Game ELO: 1986 -> 1921 ( -65)
0 - 1
Republic of Ireland
Prob to win: 20.73%
Game ELO: 1881 -> 1946 ( + 65)
Italy loss: upset (win expected)
Giants Stadium, East Rutherford Arrigo Sacchi
Italy 1990 07-Jul-1990 2 3rd Place Italy
Prob to win: 70.10%
Game ELO: 2051 -> 2092 ( + 41)
2 - 1
England
Prob to win: 29.90%
Game ELO: 1985 -> 1944 ( -41)
Italy win: expected
Bari Azeglio Vicini
Italy 1990 03-Jul-1990 2 Semi Finals Italy
Prob to win: 62.13%
Game ELO: 2122 -> 2051 ( -71)
1 - 1 (aet)
3 - 4 (pen)
Argentina
Prob to win: 37.87%
Game ELO: 1970 -> 2041 ( + 71)
Italy loss: upset (win expected)
Naples Azeglio Vicini
Italy 1990 30-Jun-1990 2 Quarter Finals Italy
Prob to win: 74.25%
Game ELO: 2093 -> 2122 ( + 29)
1 - 0
Republic of Ireland
Prob to win: 25.75%
Game ELO: 1937 -> 1908 ( -29)
Italy win: expected
Rome Azeglio Vicini
Italy 1990 25-Jun-1990 2 Top 16 Italy
Prob to win: 83.21%
Game ELO: 2058 -> 2093 ( + 35)
2 - 0
Uruguay
Prob to win: 16.79%
Game ELO: 1849 -> 1814 ( -35)
Italy win: expected
Rome Azeglio Vicini
Italy 1990 19-Jun-1990 1 Group A Italy
Prob to win: 74.03%
Game ELO: 1994 -> 2058 ( + 64)
2 - 0
Czechoslovakia
Prob to win: 25.97%
Game ELO: 1943 -> 1879 ( -64)
Italy win: expected
Stadio Olimpico, Rome Azeglio Vicini
Italy 1990 14-Jun-1990 1 Group A Italy
Prob to win: 96.90%
Game ELO: 1988 -> 1994 ( + 6)
1 - 0
USA
Prob to win: 3.10%
Game ELO: 1524 -> 1518 ( -6)
Italy win: expected
Stadio Olimpico, Rome Azeglio Vicini
Italy 1990 09-Jun-1990 1 Group A Italy
Prob to win: 88.47%
Game ELO: 1964 -> 1988 ( + 24)
1 - 0
Austria
Prob to win: 11.53%
Game ELO: 1765 -> 1741 ( -24)
Italy win: expected
Stadio Olimpico, Rome Azeglio Vicini
Euro 1988 22-Jun-1988 20:15 2 Semi Finals Soviet Union
Prob to win: 50.00%
Game ELO: 0 -> 0 ( + 0)
2 - 0
Italy
Prob to win: 50.00%
Game ELO: 0 -> 0 ( + 0)
Italy loss: upset (win expected)
Neckarstadion, Stuttgart
Euro 1988 17-Jun-1988 20:15 1 Group A Italy
Prob to win: 50.00%
Game ELO: 0 -> 0 ( + 0)
2 - 0
Denmark
Prob to win: 50.00%
Game ELO: 0 -> 0 ( + 0)
Italy win: expected
Müngersdorfer Stadion, Cologne
Euro 1988 14-Jun-1988 20:15 1 Group A Italy
Prob to win: 50.00%
Game ELO: 0 -> 0 ( + 0)
1 - 0
Spain
Prob to win: 50.00%
Game ELO: 0 -> 0 ( + 0)
Italy win: expected
Waldstadion, Frankfurt
Euro 1988 10-Jun-1988 20:15 1 Group A West Germany
Prob to win: 50.00%
Game ELO: 0 -> 0 ( + 0)
1 - 1
Italy
Prob to win: 50.00%
Game ELO: 0 -> 0 ( + 0)
Italy draw: upset (win expected)
Rheinstadion, Düsseldorf
Mexico 1986 17-Jun-1986 2 Top 16 France
Prob to win: 80.11%
Game ELO: 2061 -> 2103 ( + 42)
2 - 0
Italy
Prob to win: 19.89%
Game ELO: 1899 -> 1857 ( -42)
Italy loss: expected
Mexico City Enzo Bearzot
Mexico 1986 10-Jun-1986 1 Group A Italy
Prob to win: 80.83%
Game ELO: 1880 -> 1899 ( + 19)
3 - 2
South Korea
Prob to win: 19.17%
Game ELO: 1626 -> 1607 ( -19)
Italy win: expected
Estadio Cuauhtémoc, Puebla Enzo Bearzot
Mexico 1986 05-Jun-1986 1 Group A Italy
Prob to win: 15.32%
Game ELO: 1877 -> 1880 ( + 3)
1 - 1
Argentina
Prob to win: 84.68%
Game ELO: 1901 -> 1898 ( -3)
Italy draw: upset (loss expected)
Estadio Cuauhtémoc, Puebla Enzo Bearzot
Mexico 1986 31-May-1986 1 Group A Italy
Prob to win: 69.86%
Game ELO: 1883 -> 1877 ( -6)
1 - 1
Bulgaria
Prob to win: 30.14%
Game ELO: 1841 -> 1847 ( + 6)
Italy draw: upset (win expected)
Estadio Azteca, Mexico City Enzo Bearzot
Spain 1982 11-Jul-1982 3 Final Italy
Prob to win: 68.01%
Game ELO: 2105 -> 2188 ( + 83)
3 - 1
West Germany
Prob to win: 31.99%
Game ELO: 2140 -> 2057 ( -83)
Italy win: expected
Madrid Enzo Bearzot
Spain 1982 08-Jul-1982 3 Semi Finals Poland
Prob to win: 30.39%
Game ELO: 2091 -> 1999 ( -92)
0 - 2
Italy
Prob to win: 69.61%
Game ELO: 2013 -> 2105 ( + 92)
Italy win: expected
Barcelona Enzo Bearzot
Spain 1982 05-Jul-1982 2 Group C Brazil
Prob to win: 41.31%
Game ELO: 2210 -> 2127 ( -83)
2 - 3
Italy
Prob to win: 58.69%
Game ELO: 1930 -> 2013 ( + 83)
Italy win: expected
Estadio Sarriá, Barcelona Enzo Bearzot
Spain 1982 29-Jun-1982 2 Group C Argentina
Prob to win: 18.21%
Game ELO: 2033 -> 1960 ( -73)
1 - 2
Italy
Prob to win: 81.79%
Game ELO: 1857 -> 1930 ( + 73)
Italy win: expected
Estadio Sarriá, Barcelona Enzo Bearzot
Spain 1982 23-Jun-1982 1 Group 1 Italy
Prob to win: 93.87%
Game ELO: 1882 -> 1857 ( -25)
1 - 1
Cameroon
Prob to win: 6.13%
Game ELO: 1689 -> 1714 ( + 25)
Italy draw: upset (win expected)
Estadio de Balaídos, Vigo Enzo Bearzot
Spain 1982 18-Jun-1982 1 Group 1 Italy
Prob to win: 95.25%
Game ELO: 1902 -> 1882 ( -20)
1 - 1
Peru
Prob to win: 4.75%
Game ELO: 1755 -> 1775 ( + 20)
Italy draw: upset (win expected)
Estadio de Balaídos, Vigo Enzo Bearzot
Spain 1982 14-Jun-1982 1 Group 1 Italy
Prob to win: 69.61%
Game ELO: 1892 -> 1902 ( + 10)
0 - 0
Poland
Prob to win: 30.39%
Game ELO: 1959 -> 1949 ( -10)
Italy draw: upset (win expected)
Estadio de Balaídos, Vigo Enzo Bearzot
Euro 1980 21-Jun-1980 20:30 2 3rd Place Czechoslovakia
Prob to win: 61.18%
Game ELO: 0 -> 1075 ( + 1075)
1 - 1 (aet)
9 - 8 (pen)
Italy
Prob to win: 38.82%
Game ELO: 0 -> 996 ( + 996)
Italy loss: expected
Stadio San Paolo, Naples
Euro 1980 18-Jun-1980 20:30 1 Group B Italy
Prob to win: 48.99%
Game ELO: 1050 -> 1050 ( + 0)
0 - 0
Belgium
Prob to win: 51.01%
Game ELO: 1050 -> 1050 ( + 0)
Italy draw: upset (loss expected)
Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Euro 1980 15-Jun-1980 20:30 1 Group B England
Prob to win: 50.58%
Game ELO: 1000 -> 950 ( -50)
0 - 1
Italy
Prob to win: 49.42%
Game ELO: 1000 -> 1050 ( + 50)
Italy win: upset (loss expected)
Stadio Comunale, Turin
Euro 1980 12-Jun-1980 20:30 1 Group B Spain
Prob to win: 36.53%
Game ELO: 0 -> 1000 ( + 1000)
0 - 0
Italy
Prob to win: 63.47%
Game ELO: 0 -> 1000 ( + 1000)
Italy draw: upset (win expected)
San Siro, Milan
Argentina 1978 24-Jun-1978 3 3rd Place Brazil
Prob to win: 74.47%
Game ELO: 2165 -> 2199 ( + 34)
2 - 1
Italy
Prob to win: 25.53%
Game ELO: 2047 -> 2013 ( -34)
Italy loss: expected
Estadio Monumental, Buenos Aires Enzo Bearzot
Argentina 1978 21-Jun-1978 2 Group A Italy
Prob to win: 39.10%
Game ELO: 2092 -> 2047 ( -45)
1 - 2
Netherlands
Prob to win: 60.90%
Game ELO: 2128 -> 2173 ( + 45)
Italy loss: expected
Estadio Monumental, Buenos Aires Enzo Bearzot
Argentina 1978 18-Jun-1978 2 Group A Italy
Prob to win: 71.05%
Game ELO: 2076 -> 2092 ( + 16)
1 - 0
Austria
Prob to win: 28.95%
Game ELO: 1787 -> 1771 ( -16)
Italy win: expected
Estadio Monumental, Buenos Aires Enzo Bearzot
Argentina 1978 14-Jun-1978 2 Group A Italy
Prob to win: 52.59%
Game ELO: 2077 -> 2076 ( -1)
0 - 0
West Germany
Prob to win: 47.41%
Game ELO: 2070 -> 2071 ( + 1)
Italy draw: upset (win expected)
Estadio Monumental, Buenos Aires Enzo Bearzot
Argentina 1978 10-Jun-1978 1 Group 1 Argentina
Prob to win: 76.50%
Game ELO: 2006 -> 1959 ( -47)
0 - 1
Italy
Prob to win: 23.50%
Game ELO: 2030 -> 2077 ( + 47)
Italy win: upset (loss expected)
Estadio Monumental, Buenos Aires Enzo Bearzot
Argentina 1978 06-Jun-1978 1 Group 1 Italy
Prob to win: 82.72%
Game ELO: 1977 -> 2030 ( + 53)
3 - 1
Hungary
Prob to win: 17.28%
Game ELO: 1871 -> 1818 ( -53)
Italy win: expected
Estadio José María Minella, Mar del Plata Enzo Bearzot
Argentina 1978 02-Jun-1978 1 Group 1 Italy
Prob to win: 67.63%
Game ELO: 1935 -> 1977 ( + 42)
2 - 1
France
Prob to win: 32.37%
Game ELO: 1881 -> 1839 ( -42)
Italy win: expected
Estadio José María Minella, Mar del Plata Enzo Bearzot
West Germany 1974 23-Jun-1974 1 Group 4 Poland
Prob to win: 74.58%
Game ELO: 2031 -> 2075 ( + 44)
2 - 1
Italy
Prob to win: 25.42%
Game ELO: 1992 -> 1948 ( -44)
Italy loss: expected
Neckarstadion, Stuttgart Ferruccio Valcareggi
West Germany 1974 19-Jun-1974 1 Group 4 Argentina
Prob to win: 26.98%
Game ELO: 1853 -> 1875 ( + 22)
1 - 1
Italy
Prob to win: 73.02%
Game ELO: 2014 -> 1992 ( -22)
Italy draw: upset (win expected)
Neckarstadion, Stuttgart Ferruccio Valcareggi
West Germany 1974 15-Jun-1974 1 Group 4 Italy
Prob to win: 91.51%
Game ELO: 2000 -> 2014 ( + 14)
3 - 1
Haiti
Prob to win: 8.49%
Game ELO: 1609 -> 1595 ( -14)
Italy win: expected
Olympiastadion, Munich Ferruccio Valcareggi
Mexico 1970 21-Jun-1970 2 Final Brazil
Prob to win: 80.38%
Game ELO: 2204 -> 2275 ( + 71)
4 - 1
Italy
Prob to win: 19.62%
Game ELO: 2101 -> 2030 ( -71)
Italy loss: expected
Mexico City Ferruccio Valcareggi
Mexico 1970 17-Jun-1970 2 Semi Finals Italy
Prob to win: 41.17%
Game ELO: 2039 -> 2101 ( + 62)
4 - 3 (aet)
West Germany
Prob to win: 58.83%
Game ELO: 2127 -> 2065 ( -62)
Italy win: upset (loss expected)
Mexico City Ferruccio Valcareggi
Mexico 1970 14-Jun-1970 2 Quarter Finals Italy
Prob to win: 80.83%
Game ELO: 1975 -> 2039 ( + 64)
4 - 1
Mexico
Prob to win: 19.17%
Game ELO: 1844 -> 1780 ( -64)
Italy win: expected
Toluca Ferruccio Valcareggi
Mexico 1970 11-Jun-1970 1 Group 2 Italy
Prob to win: 87.37%
Game ELO: 2014 -> 1975 ( -39)
0 - 0
Israel
Prob to win: 12.63%
Game ELO: 1655 -> 1694 ( + 39)
Italy draw: upset (win expected)
Estadio Luis Dosal, Toluca Ferruccio Valcareggi
Mexico 1970 06-Jun-1970 1 Group 2 Uruguay
Prob to win: 27.43%
Game ELO: 1888 -> 1908 ( + 20)
0 - 0
Italy
Prob to win: 72.57%
Game ELO: 2034 -> 2014 ( -20)
Italy draw: upset (win expected)
Estadio Cuauhtémoc, Puebla Ferruccio Valcareggi
Mexico 1970 03-Jun-1970 1 Group 2 Italy
Prob to win: 73.14%
Game ELO: 2006 -> 2034 ( + 28)
1 - 0
Sweden
Prob to win: 26.86%
Game ELO: 1842 -> 1814 ( -28)
Italy win: expected
Estadio Luis Dosal, Toluca Ferruccio Valcareggi
Euro 1968 10-Jun-1968 21:15 1 Final Italy
Prob to win: 67.88%
Game ELO: 1007 -> 1090 ( + 83)
2 - 0
Yugoslavia
Prob to win: 32.12%
Game ELO: 1043 -> 960 ( -83)
Italy win: expected
Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Euro 1968 08-Jun-1968 21:15 1 Final Italy
Prob to win: 67.88%
Game ELO: 1000 -> 1007 ( + 7)
1 - 1
Yugoslavia
Prob to win: 32.12%
Game ELO: 1050 -> 1043 ( -7)
Italy draw: upset (win expected)
Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Euro 1968 05-Jun-1968 18:00 1 Semi Finals Italy
Prob to win: 73.36%
Game ELO: 0 -> 1000 ( + 1000)
0 - 0
Soviet Union
Prob to win: 26.64%
Game ELO: 0 -> 1000 ( + 1000)
Italy draw: upset (win expected)
Stadio San Paolo, Naples
England 1966 19-Jul-1966 1 Group 4 North Korea
Prob to win: 39.65%
Game ELO: 1772 -> 1847 ( + 75)
1 - 0
Italy
Prob to win: 60.35%
Game ELO: 1959 -> 1884 ( -75)
Italy loss: upset (win expected)
Ayresome Park, Middlesbrough Edmondo Fabbri
England 1966 16-Jul-1966 1 Group 4 Soviet Union
Prob to win: 70.34%
Game ELO: 2057 -> 2099 ( + 42)
1 - 0
Italy
Prob to win: 29.66%
Game ELO: 2001 -> 1959 ( -42)
Italy loss: expected
Roker Park, Sunderland Edmondo Fabbri
England 1966 13-Jul-1966 1 Group 4 Italy
Prob to win: 72.57%
Game ELO: 1968 -> 2001 ( + 33)
2 - 0
Chile
Prob to win: 27.43%
Game ELO: 1748 -> 1715 ( -33)
Italy win: expected
Roker Park, Sunderland Edmondo Fabbri
Chile 1962 07-Jun-1962 1 Group 2 Italy
Prob to win: 82.39%
Game ELO: 1773 -> 1833 ( + 60)
3 - 0
Switzerland
Prob to win: 17.61%
Game ELO: 1625 -> 1565 ( -60)
Italy win: expected
Estadio Nacional, Santiago Paolo Mazza and Giovanni Ferrari
Chile 1962 02-Jun-1962 1 Group 2 Chile
Prob to win: 64.93%
Game ELO: 1809 -> 1895 ( + 86)
2 - 0
Italy
Prob to win: 35.07%
Game ELO: 1859 -> 1773 ( -86)
Italy loss: expected
Estadio Nacional, Santiago Paolo Mazza and Giovanni Ferrari
Chile 1962 31-May-1962 1 Group 2 West Germany
Prob to win: 64.01%
Game ELO: 1894 -> 1888 ( -6)
0 - 0
Italy
Prob to win: 35.99%
Game ELO: 1853 -> 1859 ( + 6)
Italy draw: upset (loss expected)
Estadio Nacional, Santiago Paolo Mazza and Giovanni Ferrari
Switzerland 1954 23-Jun-1954 1 Group 4 Playoff Switzerland
Prob to win: 58.69%
Game ELO: 1722 -> 1871 ( + 149)
4 - 1
Italy
Prob to win: 41.31%
Game ELO: 1910 -> 1761 ( -149)
Italy loss: expected
St. Jakob Stadium, Basel  Lajos Czeizler
Switzerland 1954 20-Jun-1954 1 Group 4 Italy
Prob to win: 57.71%
Game ELO: 1813 -> 1910 ( + 97)
4 - 1
Belgium
Prob to win: 42.29%
Game ELO: 1804 -> 1707 ( -97)
Italy win: expected
Cornaredo Stadium, Lugano  Lajos Czeizler
Switzerland 1954 17-Jun-1954 1 Group 4 Switzerland
Prob to win: 58.69%
Game ELO: 1676 -> 1753 ( + 77)
2 - 1
Italy
Prob to win: 41.31%
Game ELO: 1890 -> 1813 ( -77)
Italy loss: expected
Stade Olympique de la Pontaise, Lausanne  Lajos Czeizler
Brazil 1950 02-Jul-1950 1 Group 3 Italy
Prob to win: 71.76%
Game ELO: 1917 -> 1988 ( + 71)
2 - 0
Paraguay
Prob to win: 28.24%
Game ELO: 1897 -> 1826 ( -71)
Italy win: expected
Estádio do Pacaembu, São Paulo Ferruccio Novo
Brazil 1950 25-Jun-1950 1 Group 3 Sweden
Prob to win: 38.41%
Game ELO: 1972 -> 2021 ( + 49)
3 - 2
Italy
Prob to win: 61.59%
Game ELO: 1966 -> 1917 ( -49)
Italy loss: upset (win expected)
Estádio do Pacaembu, São Paulo Ferruccio Novo
France 1938 19-Jun-1938 1 Final Italy
Prob to win: 72.68%
Game ELO: 2114 -> 2181 ( + 67)
4 - 2
Hungary
Prob to win: 27.32%
Game ELO: 2078 -> 2011 ( -67)
Italy win: expected
Paris Vittorio Pozzo
France 1938 16-Jun-1938 1 Semi Finals Italy
Prob to win: 77.91%
Game ELO: 2080 -> 2114 ( + 34)
2 - 1
Brazil
Prob to win: 22.09%
Game ELO: 1963 -> 1929 ( -34)
Italy win: expected
Marseille Vittorio Pozzo
France 1938 12-Jun-1938 1 Quarter Finals Italy
Prob to win: 94.96%
Game ELO: 2065 -> 2080 ( + 15)
3 - 1
France
Prob to win: 5.04%
Game ELO: 1686 -> 1671 ( -15)
Italy win: expected
Paris Vittorio Pozzo
France 1938 05-Jun-1938 1 Top 16 Italy
Prob to win: 93.56%
Game ELO: 2051 -> 2065 ( + 14)
2 - 1 (aet)
Norway
Prob to win: 6.44%
Game ELO: 1730 -> 1716 ( -14)
Italy win: expected
Marseille Vittorio Pozzo
Italy 1934 10-Jun-1934 1 Final Italy
Prob to win: 79.08%
Game ELO: 2147 -> 2173 ( + 26)
2 - 1 (aet)
Czechoslovakia
Prob to win: 20.92%
Game ELO: 1968 -> 1942 ( -26)
Italy win: expected
Rome Vittorio Pozzo
Italy 1934 03-Jun-1934 1 Semi Finals Italy
Prob to win: 77.62%
Game ELO: 2099 -> 2147 ( + 48)
1 - 0
Austria
Prob to win: 22.38%
Game ELO: 2083 -> 2035 ( -48)
Italy win: expected
Milan Vittorio Pozzo
Italy 1934 01-Jun-1934 1 Quarter Finals Replay Italy
Prob to win: 75.97%
Game ELO: 2054 -> 2099 ( + 45)
1 - 0
Spain
Prob to win: 24.03%
Game ELO: 2018 -> 1973 ( -45)
Italy win: expected
Florence Vittorio Pozzo
Italy 1934 31-May-1934 1 Quarter Finals Italy
Prob to win: 75.97%
Game ELO: 2061 -> 2054 ( -7)
1 - 1
Spain
Prob to win: 24.03%
Game ELO: 2011 -> 2018 ( + 7)
Italy draw: upset (win expected)
Florence Vittorio Pozzo
Italy 1934 27-May-1934 1 Top 16 Italy
Prob to win: 93.97%
Game ELO: 1973 -> 2061 ( + 88)
7 - 1
USA
Prob to win: 6.03%
Game ELO: 1784 -> 1696 ( -88)
Italy win: expected
Rome Vittorio Pozzo