Italy details

Italy

Statistics:
  • Games: 128
  • Expected results: 75 (68.81%)
  • Unexpected results: 34 (31.19%)
  • Unknown games: 19
  • Record: 63 Won, 23 Lost, 23 Drawn, 19 Unknown
  • Last five games: WWWWW
  • Expected wins: 59 (54.13%)
  • Expected losses: 16 (14.68%)
  • Unexpected wins: 4 (3.67%)
  • Unexpected losses: 7 (6.42%)
  • Unexpected draws: 23 (21.10%)
  • Wins (+1pt for expected, +3 for unexpected): 71
  • Losses (-1pt for expected, -3 for unexpected): -37
  • Draws (-1pt if fav, +1pt if underdog): 23
  • Total: 57

Tournament Game Time Round Group Name Score Odds Analysis Location Coach
Euro 2020 11-Jul-2021 21:00 2 Final Italy
Prob to win: 70.82%
Game ELO: 2013 -> 2300 (+287)
1 - 1 (aet)
3 - 2 (pen)
England
Prob to win: 29.18%
Game ELO: 1982 -> 2146 (+164)
Italy win: expected
Wembley Stadium, London
Euro 2020 06-Jul-2021 21:00 2 Semi Finals Italy
Prob to win: 79.65%
Game ELO: 2013 -> 2261 (+248)
1 - 1 (aet)
4 - 2 (pen)
Spain
Prob to win: 20.35%
Game ELO: 2033 -> 2063 (+30)
Italy win: expected
Wembley Stadium, London
Euro 2020 02-Jul-2021 18:00 2 Quarter Finals Belgium
Prob to win: 26.98%
Game ELO: 2100 -> 2127 (+27)
1 - 2
Italy
Prob to win: 73.02%
Game ELO: 2013 -> 2203 (+190)
Italy win: expected
Allianz Arena, Munich
Euro 2020 26-Jun-2021 21:00 2 Top 16 Italy
Prob to win: 94.70%
Game ELO: 2013 -> 2148 (+135)
2 - 1 (aet)
Austria
Prob to win: 5.30%
Game ELO: 1747 -> 1799 (+52)
Italy win: expected
Wembley Stadium, London
Euro 2020 20-Jun-2021 18:00 1 Group A Italy
Prob to win: 96.30%
Game ELO: 2112 -> 2135 (+23)
1 - 0
Wales
Prob to win: 3.70%
Game ELO: 1898 -> 1875 (-23)
Italy win: expected
Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Euro 2020 16-Jun-2021 21:00 1 Group A Italy
Prob to win: 90.86%
Game ELO: 2059 -> 2112 (+53)
3 - 0
Switzerland
Prob to win: 9.14%
Game ELO: 1882 -> 1829 (-53)
Italy win: expected
Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Euro 2020 11-Jun-2021 21:00 1 Group A Turkey
Prob to win: 2.32%
Game ELO: 1801 -> 1755 (-46)
0 - 3
Italy
Prob to win: 97.68%
Game ELO: 2013 -> 2059 (+46)
Italy win: expected
Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Euro 2016 02-Jul-2016 21:00 2 Quarter Finals Germany
Prob to win: 61.86%
Game ELO: 2087 -> 2124 (+37)
1 - 1 (aet)
6 - 5 (pen)
Italy
Prob to win: 38.14%
Game ELO: 1991 -> 1954 (-37)
Italy loss: expected
Nouveau Stade de Bordeaux, Bordeaux
Euro 2016 27-Jun-2016 18:00 2 Top 16 Italy
Prob to win: 59.66%
Game ELO: 1899 -> 1991 (+92)
2 - 0
Spain
Prob to win: 40.34%
Game ELO: 1978 -> 1886 (-92)
Italy win: expected
Stade de France, Saint-Denis
Euro 2016 22-Jun-2016 21:00 1 Group E Italy
Prob to win: 77.01%
Game ELO: 1984 -> 1899 (-85)
0 - 1
Republic of Ireland
Prob to win: 22.99%
Game ELO: 1681 -> 1766 (+85)
Italy loss: upset (win expected)
Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve-d'Ascq
Euro 2016 17-Jun-2016 15:00 1 Group E Italy
Prob to win: 80.11%
Game ELO: 1960 -> 1984 (+24)
1 - 0
Sweden
Prob to win: 19.89%
Game ELO: 1763 -> 1739 (-24)
Italy win: expected
Stadium Municipal, Toulouse
Euro 2016 13-Jun-2016 21:00 1 Group E Belgium
Prob to win: 47.12%
Game ELO: 1923 -> 1838 (-85)
0 - 2
Italy
Prob to win: 52.88%
Game ELO: 1875 -> 1960 (+85)
Italy win: expected
Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Décines-Charpieu
Brazil 2014 24-Jun-2014 1 Group D Italy
Prob to win: 43.70%
Game ELO: 1878 -> 1826 (-52)
0 - 1
Uruguay
Prob to win: 56.30%
Game ELO: 1864 -> 1916 (+52)
Italy loss: expected
Natal
Brazil 2014 20-Jun-2014 1 Group D Italy
Prob to win: 36.26%
Game ELO: 1944 -> 1878 (-66)
0 - 1
Costa Rica
Prob to win: 63.74%
Game ELO: 1826 -> 1892 (+66)
Italy loss: expected
Recife
Brazil 2014 14-Jun-2014 1 Group D England
Prob to win: 50.14%
Game ELO: 1932 -> 1876 (-56)
1 - 2
Italy
Prob to win: 49.86%
Game ELO: 1888 -> 1944 (+56)
Italy win: upset (loss expected)
Manaus
Euro 2012 01-Jul-2012 21:45 2 Final Spain
Game ELO: -> 1399 ()
4 - 0
Italy
Game ELO: -> 1048 ()
Olympic Stadium, Kyiv
Euro 2012 28-Jun-2012 20:45 2 Semi Finals Germany
Game ELO: -> 1116 ()
1 - 2
Italy
Game ELO: -> 1183 ()
National Stadium, Warsaw
Euro 2012 24-Jun-2012 21:45 2 Quarter Finals England
Game ELO: -> 999 ()
0 - 0 (aet)
2 - 4 (pen)
Italy
Game ELO: -> 1126 ()
Olympic Stadium, Kyiv
Euro 2012 18-Jun-2012 20:45 1 Group C Italy
Prob to win: 84.38%
Game ELO: 1011 -> 1043 (+32)
2 - 0
Republic of Ireland
Prob to win: 15.62%
Game ELO: 787 -> 755 (-32)
Italy win: expected
Stadion Miejski, Poznan
Euro 2012 14-Jun-2012 18:00 1 Group C Italy
Prob to win: 53.45%
Game ELO: 1000 -> 1011 (+11)
1 - 1
Croatia
Prob to win: 46.55%
Game ELO: 1075 -> 1064 (-11)
Italy draw: upset (win expected)
Stadion Miejski, Poznan
Euro 2012 10-Jun-2012 18:00 1 Group C Spain
Game ELO: -> 1000 ()
1 - 1
Italy
Game ELO: -> 1000 ()
PGE Arena, Gdansk
South Africa 2010 24-Jun-2010 16:00 1 Group F Slovakia
Prob to win: 34.16%
Game ELO: 1605 -> 1688 (+83)
3 - 2
Italy
Prob to win: 65.84%
Game ELO: 1876 -> 1793 (-83)
Italy loss: upset (win expected)
Johannesburg - JEP Marcello Lippi
South Africa 2010 20-Jun-2010 16:00 1 Group F Italy
Prob to win: 73.14%
Game ELO: 1915 -> 1876 (-39)
1 - 1
New Zealand
Prob to win: 26.86%
Game ELO: 1550 -> 1589 (+39)
Italy draw: upset (win expected)
Nelspruit Marcello Lippi
South Africa 2010 14-Jun-2010 20:30 1 Group F Italy
Prob to win: 40.48%
Game ELO: 1938 -> 1915 (-23)
1 - 1
Paraguay
Prob to win: 59.52%
Game ELO: 1765 -> 1788 (+23)
Italy draw: upset (loss expected)
Cape Town Marcello Lippi
Euro 2008 22-Jun-2008 20:45 2 Quarter Finals Spain
Game ELO: -> 1204 ()
0 - 0 (aet)
4 - 2 (pen)
Italy
Game ELO: -> 951 ()
Ernst-Happel-Stadion, Vienna
Euro 2008 17-Jun-2008 20:45 1 Group C France
Prob to win: 35.86%
Game ELO: 928 -> 850 (-78)
0 - 2
Italy
Prob to win: 64.14%
Game ELO: 914 -> 992 (+78)
Italy win: expected
Letzigrund, Zürich
Euro 2008 13-Jun-2008 18:00 1 Group C Italy
Prob to win: 50.43%
Game ELO: 900 -> 914 (+14)
1 - 1
Romania
Prob to win: 49.57%
Game ELO: 1000 -> 986 (-14)
Italy draw: upset (win expected)
Letzigrund, Zürich
Euro 2008 09-Jun-2008 20:45 1 Group C Netherlands
Game ELO: -> 1100 ()
3 - 0
Italy
Game ELO: -> 900 ()
Stade de Suisse, Bern
Germany 2006 09-Jul-2006 2 Final Italy
Prob to win: 73.14%
Game ELO: 2185 -> 2263 (+78)
1 - 1 (aet)
5 - 3 (pen)
France
Prob to win: 26.86%
Game ELO: 2155 -> 2089 (-66)
Italy win: expected
Berlin Marcello Lippi
Germany 2006 04-Jul-2006 2 Semi Finals Germany
Prob to win: 33.39%
Game ELO: 2175 -> 2068 (-107)
0 - 2 (aet)
Italy
Prob to win: 66.61%
Game ELO: 2114 -> 2197 (+83)
Italy win: expected
Dortmund Marcello Lippi
Germany 2006 30-Jun-2006 2 Quarter Finals Italy
Prob to win: 89.81%
Game ELO: 2032 -> 2114 (+82)
3 - 0
Ukraine
Prob to win: 10.19%
Game ELO: 1967 -> 1885 (-82)
Italy win: expected
Berlin Marcello Lippi
Germany 2006 26-Jun-2006 2 Top 16 Italy
Prob to win: 93.35%
Game ELO: 2005 -> 2032 (+27)
1 - 0
Australia
Prob to win: 6.65%
Game ELO: 1831 -> 1804 (-27)
Italy win: expected
Kaiserslautern Marcello Lippi
Germany 2006 22-Jun-2006 1 Group E Czech Republic
Prob to win: 7.64%
Game ELO: 1896 -> 1830 (-66)
0 - 2
Italy
Prob to win: 92.36%
Game ELO: 1939 -> 2005 (+66)
Italy win: expected
Marcello Lippi
Germany 2006 17-Jun-2006 1 Group E Italy
Prob to win: 95.28%
Game ELO: 1964 -> 1939 (-25)
1 - 1
USA
Prob to win: 4.72%
Game ELO: 1775 -> 1800 (+25)
Italy draw: upset (win expected)
Marcello Lippi
Germany 2006 12-Jun-2006 1 Group E Italy
Prob to win: 94.50%
Game ELO: 1944 -> 1964 (+20)
2 - 0
Ghana
Prob to win: 5.50%
Game ELO: 1618 -> 1598 (-20)
Italy win: expected
Marcello Lippi
Euro 2004 22-Jun-2004 19:45 1 Group C Italy
Prob to win: 83.21%
Game ELO: 1023 -> 1043 (+20)
2 - 1
Bulgaria
Prob to win: 16.79%
Game ELO: 825 -> 765 (-60)
Italy win: expected
Estádio D. Afonso Henriques, Guimarães
Euro 2004 18-Jun-2004 19:45 1 Group C Italy
Prob to win: 45.41%
Game ELO: 1000 -> 1023 (+23)
1 - 1
Sweden
Prob to win: 54.59%
Game ELO: 1175 -> 1152 (-23)
Italy draw: upset (loss expected)
Estádio do Dragão, Porto
Euro 2004 14-Jun-2004 17:00 1 Group C Denmark
Game ELO: -> 1000 ()
0 - 0
Italy
Game ELO: -> 1000 ()
Estádio D. Afonso Henriques, Guimarães
Korea/ Japan 2002 18-Jun-2002 2 Top 16 South Korea
Prob to win: 56.16%
Game ELO: 1890 -> 1949 (+59)
2 - 1 (aet)
Italy
Prob to win: 43.84%
Game ELO: 1951 -> 1892 (-59)
Italy loss: expected
Daejeon Giovanni Trapattoni
Korea/ Japan 2002 13-Jun-2002 1 Group G Mexico
Prob to win: 38.41%
Game ELO: 1914 -> 1920 (+6)
1 - 1
Italy
Prob to win: 61.59%
Game ELO: 1957 -> 1951 (-6)
Italy draw: upset (win expected)
Oita Stadium, Oita Giovanni Trapattoni
Korea/ Japan 2002 08-Jun-2002 1 Group G Italy
Prob to win: 59.94%
Game ELO: 2034 -> 1957 (-77)
1 - 2
Croatia
Prob to win: 40.06%
Game ELO: 1824 -> 1901 (+77)
Italy loss: upset (win expected)
Kashima Stadium, Ibaraki Giovanni Trapattoni
Korea/ Japan 2002 03-Jun-2002 1 Group G Italy
Prob to win: 68.75%
Game ELO: 2009 -> 2034 (+25)
2 - 0
Ecuador
Prob to win: 31.25%
Game ELO: 1727 -> 1702 (-25)
Italy win: expected
Sapporo Dome, Sapporo Giovanni Trapattoni
Euro 2000 02-Jul-2000 20:00 2 Final France
Game ELO: -> 1250 ()
2 - 1 (aet)
Italy
Game ELO: -> 1223 ()
De Kuip, Rotterdam
Euro 2000 29-Jun-2000 18:00 2 Semi Finals Italy
Game ELO: -> 1287 ()
0 - 0 (aet)
3 - 1 (pen)
Netherlands
Game ELO: -> 1173 ()
Amsterdam Arena, Amsterdam
Euro 2000 24-Jun-2000 20:45 2 Quarter Finals Italy
Game ELO: -> 1199 ()
2 - 0
Romania
Game ELO: -> 967 ()
King Baudouin Stadium, Brussels
Euro 2000 19-Jun-2000 20:45 1 Group B Italy
Prob to win: 84.90%
Game ELO: 1125 -> 1152 (+27)
2 - 1
Sweden
Prob to win: 15.10%
Game ELO: 950 -> 923 (-27)
Italy win: expected
Philips Stadion, Eindhoven
Euro 2000 14-Jun-2000 20:45 1 Group B Italy
Prob to win: 86.85%
Game ELO: 1050 -> 1125 (+75)
2 - 0
Belgium
Prob to win: 13.15%
Game ELO: 1050 -> 975 (-75)
Italy win: expected
King Baudouin Stadium, Brussels
Euro 2000 11-Jun-2000 14:30 1 Group B Turkey
Game ELO: -> 950 ()
1 - 2
Italy
Game ELO: -> 1050 ()
GelreDome, Arnhem
France 1998 03-Jul-1998 2 Quarter Finals Italy
Prob to win: 15.47%
Game ELO: 2060 -> 2024 (-36)
0 - 0 (aet)
3 - 4 (pen)
France
Prob to win: 84.53%
Game ELO: 2161 -> 2197 (+36)
Italy loss: expected
Saint-Denis Cesare Maldini
France 1998 29-Jun-1998 2 Top 16 Italy
Prob to win: 66.74%
Game ELO: 2021 -> 2060 (+39)
1 - 0
Norway
Prob to win: 33.26%
Game ELO: 1942 -> 1903 (-39)
Italy win: expected
Toulouse Cesare Maldini
France 1998 23-Jun-1998 1 Group B Italy
Prob to win: 87.31%
Game ELO: 2006 -> 2021 (+15)
2 - 1
Austria
Prob to win: 12.69%
Game ELO: 1704 -> 1689 (-15)
Italy win: expected
Stade de France, Saint-Denis Cesare Maldini
France 1998 17-Jun-1998 1 Group B Italy
Prob to win: 90.91%
Game ELO: 1984 -> 2006 (+22)
3 - 0
Cameroon
Prob to win: 9.09%
Game ELO: 1623 -> 1601 (-22)
Italy win: expected
Stade de la Mosson, Montpellier Cesare Maldini
France 1998 11-Jun-1998 1 Group B Italy
Prob to win: 85.48%
Game ELO: 2016 -> 1984 (-32)
2 - 2
Chile
Prob to win: 14.52%
Game ELO: 1756 -> 1788 (+32)
Italy draw: upset (win expected)
Parc Lescure, Bordeaux Cesare Maldini
Euro 1996 19-Jun-1996 19:30 1 Group C Italy
Prob to win: 19.53%
Game ELO: 983 -> 1004 (+21)
0 - 0
Germany
Prob to win: 80.47%
Game ELO: 1140 -> 1119 (-21)
Italy draw: upset (loss expected)
Old Trafford, Manchester
Euro 1996 14-Jun-1996 19:30 1 Group C Czech Republic
Prob to win: 60.77%
Game ELO: 925 -> 992 (+67)
2 - 1
Italy
Prob to win: 39.23%
Game ELO: 1050 -> 983 (-67)
Italy loss: expected
Anfield, Liverpool
Euro 1996 11-Jun-1996 16:30 1 Group C Italy
Game ELO: -> 1050 ()
2 - 1
Russia
Game ELO: -> 950 ()
Anfield, Liverpool
USA 1994 17-Jul-1994 2 Final Brazil
Prob to win: 67.63%
Game ELO: 2130 -> 2175 (+45)
0 - 0 (aet)
3 - 2 (pen)
Italy
Prob to win: 32.37%
Game ELO: 2092 -> 2047 (-45)
Italy loss: expected
Pasadena Arrigo Sacchi
USA 1994 13-Jul-1994 2 Semi Finals Bulgaria
Prob to win: 21.11%
Game ELO: 2050 -> 1999 (-51)
1 - 2
Italy
Prob to win: 78.89%
Game ELO: 2041 -> 2092 (+51)
Italy win: expected
East Rutherford Arrigo Sacchi
USA 1994 09-Jul-1994 2 Quarter Finals Italy
Prob to win: 63.61%
Game ELO: 1989 -> 2041 (+52)
2 - 1
Spain
Prob to win: 36.39%
Game ELO: 2002 -> 1950 (-52)
Italy win: expected
Foxborough Arrigo Sacchi
USA 1994 05-Jul-1994 2 Top 16 Nigeria
Prob to win: 19.62%
Game ELO: 1836 -> 1802 (-34)
1 - 2 (aet)
Italy
Prob to win: 80.38%
Game ELO: 1955 -> 1989 (+34)
Italy win: expected
Foxborough Arrigo Sacchi
USA 1994 28-Jun-1994 1 Group E Italy
Prob to win: 78.79%
Game ELO: 1968 -> 1955 (-13)
1 - 1
Mexico
Prob to win: 21.21%
Game ELO: 1872 -> 1885 (+13)
Italy draw: upset (win expected)
RFK Stadium, Washington Arrigo Sacchi
USA 1994 23-Jun-1994 1 Group E Italy
Prob to win: 74.80%
Game ELO: 1921 -> 1968 (+47)
1 - 0
Norway
Prob to win: 25.20%
Game ELO: 1902 -> 1855 (-47)
Italy win: expected
Giants Stadium, East Rutherford Arrigo Sacchi
USA 1994 18-Jun-1994 1 Group E Italy
Prob to win: 79.27%
Game ELO: 1986 -> 1921 (-65)
0 - 1
Republic of Ireland
Prob to win: 20.73%
Game ELO: 1881 -> 1946 (+65)
Italy loss: upset (win expected)
Giants Stadium, East Rutherford Arrigo Sacchi
Italy 1990 07-Jul-1990 2 3rd Place Italy
Prob to win: 70.10%
Game ELO: 2051 -> 2092 (+41)
2 - 1
England
Prob to win: 29.90%
Game ELO: 1985 -> 1944 (-41)
Italy win: expected
Bari Azeglio Vicini
Italy 1990 03-Jul-1990 2 Semi Finals Italy
Prob to win: 62.13%
Game ELO: 2122 -> 2051 (-71)
1 - 1 (aet)
3 - 4 (pen)
Argentina
Prob to win: 37.87%
Game ELO: 1970 -> 2041 (+71)
Italy loss: upset (win expected)
Naples Azeglio Vicini
Italy 1990 30-Jun-1990 2 Quarter Finals Italy
Prob to win: 74.25%
Game ELO: 2093 -> 2122 (+29)
1 - 0
Republic of Ireland
Prob to win: 25.75%
Game ELO: 1937 -> 1908 (-29)
Italy win: expected
Rome Azeglio Vicini
Italy 1990 25-Jun-1990 2 Top 16 Italy
Prob to win: 83.21%
Game ELO: 2058 -> 2093 (+35)
2 - 0
Uruguay
Prob to win: 16.79%
Game ELO: 1849 -> 1814 (-35)
Italy win: expected
Rome Azeglio Vicini
Italy 1990 19-Jun-1990 1 Group A Italy
Prob to win: 74.03%
Game ELO: 1994 -> 2058 (+64)
2 - 0
Czechoslovakia
Prob to win: 25.97%
Game ELO: 1943 -> 1879 (-64)
Italy win: expected
Stadio Olimpico, Rome Azeglio Vicini
Italy 1990 14-Jun-1990 1 Group A Italy
Prob to win: 96.90%
Game ELO: 1988 -> 1994 (+6)
1 - 0
USA
Prob to win: 3.10%
Game ELO: 1524 -> 1518 (-6)
Italy win: expected
Stadio Olimpico, Rome Azeglio Vicini
Italy 1990 09-Jun-1990 1 Group A Italy
Prob to win: 88.47%
Game ELO: 1964 -> 1988 (+24)
1 - 0
Austria
Prob to win: 11.53%
Game ELO: 1765 -> 1741 (-24)
Italy win: expected
Stadio Olimpico, Rome Azeglio Vicini
Euro 1988 22-Jun-1988 20:15 2 Semi Finals Soviet Union
Game ELO: -> 0 ()
2 - 0
Italy
Game ELO: -> 0 ()
Neckarstadion, Stuttgart
Euro 1988 17-Jun-1988 20:15 1 Group A Italy
Game ELO: -> 0 ()
2 - 0
Denmark
Game ELO: -> 0 ()
Müngersdorfer Stadion, Cologne
Euro 1988 14-Jun-1988 20:15 1 Group A Italy
Game ELO: -> 0 ()
1 - 0
Spain
Game ELO: -> 0 ()
Waldstadion, Frankfurt
Euro 1988 10-Jun-1988 20:15 1 Group A West Germany
Game ELO: -> 0 ()
1 - 1
Italy
Game ELO: -> 0 ()
Rheinstadion, Düsseldorf
Mexico 1986 17-Jun-1986 2 Top 16 France
Prob to win: 80.11%
Game ELO: 2061 -> 2103 (+42)
2 - 0
Italy
Prob to win: 19.89%
Game ELO: 1899 -> 1857 (-42)
Italy loss: expected
Mexico City Enzo Bearzot
Mexico 1986 10-Jun-1986 1 Group A Italy
Prob to win: 80.83%
Game ELO: 1880 -> 1899 (+19)
3 - 2
South Korea
Prob to win: 19.17%
Game ELO: 1626 -> 1607 (-19)
Italy win: expected
Estadio Cuauhtémoc, Puebla Enzo Bearzot
Mexico 1986 05-Jun-1986 1 Group A Italy
Prob to win: 15.32%
Game ELO: 1877 -> 1880 (+3)
1 - 1
Argentina
Prob to win: 84.68%
Game ELO: 1901 -> 1898 (-3)
Italy draw: upset (loss expected)
Estadio Cuauhtémoc, Puebla Enzo Bearzot
Mexico 1986 31-May-1986 1 Group A Italy
Prob to win: 69.86%
Game ELO: 1883 -> 1877 (-6)
1 - 1
Bulgaria
Prob to win: 30.14%
Game ELO: 1841 -> 1847 (+6)
Italy draw: upset (win expected)
Estadio Azteca, Mexico City Enzo Bearzot
Spain 1982 11-Jul-1982 3 Final Italy
Prob to win: 68.01%
Game ELO: 2105 -> 2188 (+83)
3 - 1
West Germany
Prob to win: 31.99%
Game ELO: 2140 -> 2057 (-83)
Italy win: expected
Madrid Enzo Bearzot
Spain 1982 08-Jul-1982 3 Semi Finals Poland
Prob to win: 30.39%
Game ELO: 2091 -> 1999 (-92)
0 - 2
Italy
Prob to win: 69.61%
Game ELO: 2013 -> 2105 (+92)
Italy win: expected
Barcelona Enzo Bearzot
Spain 1982 05-Jul-1982 2 Group C Brazil
Prob to win: 41.31%
Game ELO: 2210 -> 2127 (-83)
2 - 3
Italy
Prob to win: 58.69%
Game ELO: 1930 -> 2013 (+83)
Italy win: expected
Estadio Sarriá, Barcelona Enzo Bearzot
Spain 1982 29-Jun-1982 2 Group C Argentina
Prob to win: 18.21%
Game ELO: 2033 -> 1960 (-73)
1 - 2
Italy
Prob to win: 81.79%
Game ELO: 1857 -> 1930 (+73)
Italy win: expected
Estadio Sarriá, Barcelona Enzo Bearzot
Spain 1982 23-Jun-1982 1 Group 1 Italy
Prob to win: 93.87%
Game ELO: 1882 -> 1857 (-25)
1 - 1
Cameroon
Prob to win: 6.13%
Game ELO: 1689 -> 1714 (+25)
Italy draw: upset (win expected)
Estadio de Balaídos, Vigo Enzo Bearzot
Spain 1982 18-Jun-1982 1 Group 1 Italy
Prob to win: 95.25%
Game ELO: 1902 -> 1882 (-20)
1 - 1
Peru
Prob to win: 4.75%
Game ELO: 1755 -> 1775 (+20)
Italy draw: upset (win expected)
Estadio de Balaídos, Vigo Enzo Bearzot
Spain 1982 14-Jun-1982 1 Group 1 Italy
Prob to win: 69.61%
Game ELO: 1892 -> 1902 (+10)
0 - 0
Poland
Prob to win: 30.39%
Game ELO: 1959 -> 1949 (-10)
Italy draw: upset (win expected)
Estadio de Balaídos, Vigo Enzo Bearzot
Euro 1980 21-Jun-1980 20:30 2 3rd Place Czechoslovakia
Game ELO: -> 1075 ()
1 - 1 (aet)
9 - 8 (pen)
Italy
Game ELO: -> 996 ()
Stadio San Paolo, Naples
Euro 1980 18-Jun-1980 20:30 1 Group B Italy
Prob to win: 48.99%
Game ELO: 1050 -> 1050 (+0)
0 - 0
Belgium
Prob to win: 51.01%
Game ELO: 1050 -> 1050 (+0)
Italy draw: upset (loss expected)
Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Euro 1980 15-Jun-1980 20:30 1 Group B England
Prob to win: 50.58%
Game ELO: 1000 -> 950 (-50)
0 - 1
Italy
Prob to win: 49.42%
Game ELO: 1000 -> 1050 (+50)
Italy win: upset (loss expected)
Stadio Comunale, Turin
Euro 1980 12-Jun-1980 20:30 1 Group B Spain
Game ELO: -> 1000 ()
0 - 0
Italy
Game ELO: -> 1000 ()
San Siro, Milan
Argentina 1978 24-Jun-1978 3 3rd Place Brazil
Prob to win: 74.47%
Game ELO: 2165 -> 2199 (+34)
2 - 1
Italy
Prob to win: 25.53%
Game ELO: 2047 -> 2013 (-34)
Italy loss: expected
Estadio Monumental, Buenos Aires Enzo Bearzot
Argentina 1978 21-Jun-1978 2 Group A Italy
Prob to win: 39.10%
Game ELO: 2092 -> 2047 (-45)
1 - 2
Netherlands
Prob to win: 60.90%
Game ELO: 2128 -> 2173 (+45)
Italy loss: expected
Estadio Monumental, Buenos Aires Enzo Bearzot
Argentina 1978 18-Jun-1978 2 Group A Italy
Prob to win: 71.05%
Game ELO: 2076 -> 2092 (+16)
1 - 0
Austria
Prob to win: 28.95%
Game ELO: 1787 -> 1771 (-16)
Italy win: expected
Estadio Monumental, Buenos Aires Enzo Bearzot
Argentina 1978 14-Jun-1978 2 Group A Italy
Prob to win: 52.59%
Game ELO: 2077 -> 2076 (-1)
0 - 0
West Germany
Prob to win: 47.41%
Game ELO: 2070 -> 2071 (+1)
Italy draw: upset (win expected)
Estadio Monumental, Buenos Aires Enzo Bearzot
Argentina 1978 10-Jun-1978 1 Group 1 Argentina
Prob to win: 76.50%
Game ELO: 2006 -> 1959 (-47)
0 - 1
Italy
Prob to win: 23.50%
Game ELO: 2030 -> 2077 (+47)
Italy win: upset (loss expected)
Estadio Monumental, Buenos Aires Enzo Bearzot
Argentina 1978 06-Jun-1978 1 Group 1 Italy
Prob to win: 82.72%
Game ELO: 1977 -> 2030 (+53)
3 - 1
Hungary
Prob to win: 17.28%
Game ELO: 1871 -> 1818 (-53)
Italy win: expected
Estadio José María Minella, Mar del Plata Enzo Bearzot
Argentina 1978 02-Jun-1978 1 Group 1 Italy
Prob to win: 67.63%
Game ELO: 1935 -> 1977 (+42)
2 - 1
France
Prob to win: 32.37%
Game ELO: 1881 -> 1839 (-42)
Italy win: expected
Estadio José María Minella, Mar del Plata Enzo Bearzot
West Germany 1974 23-Jun-1974 1 Group 4 Poland
Prob to win: 74.58%
Game ELO: 2031 -> 2075 (+44)
2 - 1
Italy
Prob to win: 25.42%
Game ELO: 1992 -> 1948 (-44)
Italy loss: expected
Neckarstadion, Stuttgart Ferruccio Valcareggi
West Germany 1974 19-Jun-1974 1 Group 4 Argentina
Prob to win: 26.98%
Game ELO: 1853 -> 1875 (+22)
1 - 1
Italy
Prob to win: 73.02%
Game ELO: 2014 -> 1992 (-22)
Italy draw: upset (win expected)
Neckarstadion, Stuttgart Ferruccio Valcareggi
West Germany 1974 15-Jun-1974 1 Group 4 Italy
Prob to win: 91.51%
Game ELO: 2000 -> 2014 (+14)
3 - 1
Haiti
Prob to win: 8.49%
Game ELO: 1609 -> 1595 (-14)
Italy win: expected
Olympiastadion, Munich Ferruccio Valcareggi
Mexico 1970 21-Jun-1970 2 Final Brazil
Prob to win: 80.38%
Game ELO: 2204 -> 2275 (+71)
4 - 1
Italy
Prob to win: 19.62%
Game ELO: 2101 -> 2030 (-71)
Italy loss: expected
Mexico City Ferruccio Valcareggi
Mexico 1970 17-Jun-1970 2 Semi Finals Italy
Prob to win: 41.17%
Game ELO: 2039 -> 2101 (+62)
4 - 3 (aet)
West Germany
Prob to win: 58.83%
Game ELO: 2127 -> 2065 (-62)
Italy win: upset (loss expected)
Mexico City Ferruccio Valcareggi
Mexico 1970 14-Jun-1970 2 Quarter Finals Italy
Prob to win: 80.83%
Game ELO: 1975 -> 2039 (+64)
4 - 1
Mexico
Prob to win: 19.17%
Game ELO: 1844 -> 1780 (-64)
Italy win: expected
Toluca Ferruccio Valcareggi
Mexico 1970 11-Jun-1970 1 Group 2 Italy
Prob to win: 87.37%
Game ELO: 2014 -> 1975 (-39)
0 - 0
Israel
Prob to win: 12.63%
Game ELO: 1655 -> 1694 (+39)
Italy draw: upset (win expected)
Estadio Luis Dosal, Toluca Ferruccio Valcareggi
Mexico 1970 06-Jun-1970 1 Group 2 Uruguay
Prob to win: 27.43%
Game ELO: 1888 -> 1908 (+20)
0 - 0
Italy
Prob to win: 72.57%
Game ELO: 2034 -> 2014 (-20)
Italy draw: upset (win expected)
Estadio Cuauhtémoc, Puebla Ferruccio Valcareggi
Mexico 1970 03-Jun-1970 1 Group 2 Italy
Prob to win: 73.14%
Game ELO: 2006 -> 2034 (+28)
1 - 0
Sweden
Prob to win: 26.86%
Game ELO: 1842 -> 1814 (-28)
Italy win: expected
Estadio Luis Dosal, Toluca Ferruccio Valcareggi
Euro 1968 10-Jun-1968 21:15 1 Final Italy
Prob to win: 67.88%
Game ELO: 1007 -> 1090 (+83)
2 - 0
Yugoslavia
Prob to win: 32.12%
Game ELO: 1043 -> 960 (-83)
Italy win: expected
Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Euro 1968 08-Jun-1968 21:15 1 Final Italy
Prob to win: 67.88%
Game ELO: 1000 -> 1007 (+7)
1 - 1
Yugoslavia
Prob to win: 32.12%
Game ELO: 1050 -> 1043 (-7)
Italy draw: upset (win expected)
Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Euro 1968 05-Jun-1968 18:00 1 Semi Finals Italy
Game ELO: -> 1000 ()
0 - 0
Soviet Union
Game ELO: -> 1000 ()
Stadio San Paolo, Naples
England 1966 19-Jul-1966 1 Group 4 North Korea
Prob to win: 39.65%
Game ELO: 1772 -> 1847 (+75)
1 - 0
Italy
Prob to win: 60.35%
Game ELO: 1959 -> 1884 (-75)
Italy loss: upset (win expected)
Ayresome Park, Middlesbrough Edmondo Fabbri
England 1966 16-Jul-1966 1 Group 4 Soviet Union
Prob to win: 70.34%
Game ELO: 2057 -> 2099 (+42)
1 - 0
Italy
Prob to win: 29.66%
Game ELO: 2001 -> 1959 (-42)
Italy loss: expected
Roker Park, Sunderland Edmondo Fabbri
England 1966 13-Jul-1966 1 Group 4 Italy
Prob to win: 72.57%
Game ELO: 1968 -> 2001 (+33)
2 - 0
Chile
Prob to win: 27.43%
Game ELO: 1748 -> 1715 (-33)
Italy win: expected
Roker Park, Sunderland Edmondo Fabbri
Chile 1962 07-Jun-1962 1 Group 2 Italy
Prob to win: 82.39%
Game ELO: 1773 -> 1833 (+60)
3 - 0
Switzerland
Prob to win: 17.61%
Game ELO: 1625 -> 1565 (-60)
Italy win: expected
Estadio Nacional, Santiago Paolo Mazza and Giovanni Ferrari
Chile 1962 02-Jun-1962 1 Group 2 Chile
Prob to win: 64.93%
Game ELO: 1809 -> 1895 (+86)
2 - 0
Italy
Prob to win: 35.07%
Game ELO: 1859 -> 1773 (-86)
Italy loss: expected
Estadio Nacional, Santiago Paolo Mazza and Giovanni Ferrari
Chile 1962 31-May-1962 1 Group 2 West Germany
Prob to win: 64.01%
Game ELO: 1894 -> 1888 (-6)
0 - 0
Italy
Prob to win: 35.99%
Game ELO: 1853 -> 1859 (+6)
Italy draw: upset (loss expected)
Estadio Nacional, Santiago Paolo Mazza and Giovanni Ferrari
Switzerland 1954 23-Jun-1954 1 Group 4 Playoff Switzerland
Prob to win: 58.69%
Game ELO: 1722 -> 1871 (+149)
4 - 1
Italy
Prob to win: 41.31%
Game ELO: 1910 -> 1761 (-149)
Italy loss: expected
St. Jakob Stadium, Basel  Lajos Czeizler
Switzerland 1954 20-Jun-1954 1 Group 4 Italy
Prob to win: 57.71%
Game ELO: 1813 -> 1910 (+97)
4 - 1
Belgium
Prob to win: 42.29%
Game ELO: 1804 -> 1707 (-97)
Italy win: expected
Cornaredo Stadium, Lugano  Lajos Czeizler
Switzerland 1954 17-Jun-1954 1 Group 4 Switzerland
Prob to win: 58.69%
Game ELO: 1676 -> 1753 (+77)
2 - 1
Italy
Prob to win: 41.31%
Game ELO: 1890 -> 1813 (-77)
Italy loss: expected
Stade Olympique de la Pontaise, Lausanne  Lajos Czeizler
Brazil 1950 02-Jul-1950 1 Group 3 Italy
Prob to win: 71.76%
Game ELO: 1917 -> 1988 (+71)
2 - 0
Paraguay
Prob to win: 28.24%
Game ELO: 1897 -> 1826 (-71)
Italy win: expected
Estádio do Pacaembu, São Paulo Ferruccio Novo
Brazil 1950 25-Jun-1950 1 Group 3 Sweden
Prob to win: 38.41%
Game ELO: 1972 -> 2021 (+49)
3 - 2
Italy
Prob to win: 61.59%
Game ELO: 1966 -> 1917 (-49)
Italy loss: upset (win expected)
Estádio do Pacaembu, São Paulo Ferruccio Novo
France 1938 19-Jun-1938 1 Final Italy
Prob to win: 72.68%
Game ELO: 2114 -> 2181 (+67)
4 - 2
Hungary
Prob to win: 27.32%
Game ELO: 2078 -> 2011 (-67)
Italy win: expected
Paris Vittorio Pozzo
France 1938 16-Jun-1938 1 Semi Finals Italy
Prob to win: 77.91%
Game ELO: 2080 -> 2114 (+34)
2 - 1
Brazil
Prob to win: 22.09%
Game ELO: 1963 -> 1929 (-34)
Italy win: expected
Marseille Vittorio Pozzo
France 1938 12-Jun-1938 1 Quarter Finals Italy
Prob to win: 94.96%
Game ELO: 2065 -> 2080 (+15)
3 - 1
France
Prob to win: 5.04%
Game ELO: 1686 -> 1671 (-15)
Italy win: expected
Paris Vittorio Pozzo
France 1938 05-Jun-1938 1 Top 16 Italy
Prob to win: 93.56%
Game ELO: 2051 -> 2065 (+14)
2 - 1 (aet)
Norway
Prob to win: 6.44%
Game ELO: 1730 -> 1716 (-14)
Italy win: expected
Marseille Vittorio Pozzo
Italy 1934 10-Jun-1934 1 Final Italy
Prob to win: 79.08%
Game ELO: 2147 -> 2173 (+26)
2 - 1 (aet)
Czechoslovakia
Prob to win: 20.92%
Game ELO: 1968 -> 1942 (-26)
Italy win: expected
Rome Vittorio Pozzo
Italy 1934 03-Jun-1934 1 Semi Finals Italy
Prob to win: 77.62%
Game ELO: 2099 -> 2147 (+48)
1 - 0
Austria
Prob to win: 22.38%
Game ELO: 2083 -> 2035 (-48)
Italy win: expected
Milan Vittorio Pozzo
Italy 1934 01-Jun-1934 1 Quarter Finals Replay Italy
Prob to win: 75.97%
Game ELO: 2054 -> 2099 (+45)
1 - 0
Spain
Prob to win: 24.03%
Game ELO: 2018 -> 1973 (-45)
Italy win: expected
Florence Vittorio Pozzo
Italy 1934 31-May-1934 1 Quarter Finals Italy
Prob to win: 75.97%
Game ELO: 2061 -> 2054 (-7)
1 - 1
Spain
Prob to win: 24.03%
Game ELO: 2011 -> 2018 (+7)
Italy draw: upset (win expected)
Florence Vittorio Pozzo
Italy 1934 27-May-1934 1 Top 16 Italy
Prob to win: 93.97%
Game ELO: 1973 -> 2061 (+88)
7 - 1
USA
Prob to win: 6.03%
Game ELO: 1784 -> 1696 (-88)
Italy win: expected
Rome Vittorio Pozzo